Thursday 13 November 2014

Summary: On the Kefalonia Earthquakes 5.11.14 - 13.11.14

On The Kefalonia Earthquakes: 5 to 13 November 2014

Mw 3.9-5.0, Kefalonia, Ionian Islands, Greece, 5-13 November 2014


This is a brief summary of the seismicity that has so far occurred on the island of Kefalonia, Greece, between the 5th November and 13th November 2014. All aftershocks have been reliably provided by NOA up until midnight 13th November; therefore aftershocks to the Mw 4.3 13th November Northern Kefalonia earthquake are not included in this summary. A more in-depth report will be released at a later date.
An interpreted seismogram from the Kalavrita Seismograph (KLV), Achaia Province, Greece. The Mw 4.8 South Gulf of Argostolion Quake can be seen clearly in red.
At 14:22 UTC on the 5th November 2014 a moment magnitude (MW) 4.1 earthquake struck the south of the Ionian Island of Kefalonia, Greece. The earthquake was the largest aftershock in eight months to the doublet earthquake of 26th January & 3rd February 2014. The earthquake was located at the mouth of the Gulf of Argostolion and had a focal depth of 12 kilometres. According to the National Observatory of Athens (NOA) the earthquake was the result of strike-slip faulting; the moment tensor solution provided had an inferred fault plane striking due east-west, with a dip of 86°.
Moment Tensor Solution for the Mw 4.1 South Gulf of Argostolion Quake
Over the next few hours several minor aftershocks struck along a clear fault plane bearing agreement with that inferred from the moment tensor solution. The largest aftershock struck at 14:54 UTC, a local magnitude (ML) 2.8 earthquake west of the mainshock’s epicentre, with a focal depth of 21.2 kilometres. In the 24 hours immediately following the mainshock there were 19 aftershocks recorded by NOA over ML 2.0. At 15:13 UTC on the 6th November a ML 2.8 event occurred in about the same location as the previous day’s quake of the same size, with a focal depth of 19.6 kilometres.

At 07:41 UTC on the 7th November 2014 a moment magnitude 4.8 earthquake struck west of the MW 4.1 earthquake of the 5th November. This earthquake struck at a focal depth of 18 kilometres; the moment tensor solution provided by NOA inferred a fault plane striking slightly west-south-west to east-north-east (strike = 263°), with a dip of 76°.
Moment Tensor Solution for the Mw 4.8 South Gulf of Argostolion Quake
This second MW 4+ earthquake triggered a marked increase in seismic activity across the mouth of the Gulf of Argostolion, with 19 aftershocks recorded by NOA over ML 2.2 in the 24 hours immediately following this second mainshock. The largest aftershock occurred at 07:53 UTC with a local magnitude of 3.6, at a focal depth of 16.5 kilometres. Four other magnitude 3.0+ earthquakes struck over the next 24 hours. These were: a local magnitude 3.2 at 09:56 UTC, with a focal depth of 19.6 kilometres; a local magnitude 3.3 at 10:54 UTC, with a focal depth of 17.3 kilometres; a local magnitude 3.3 at 17:23 UTC, with a focal depth of 16.5 kilometres; and a local magnitude 3.0 at 10:14 UTC on the 8th November, with a focal depth of 17.7 kilometres.

At 23:15 UTC on the 8th November 2014 a moment magnitude 5.0 earthquake struck at about the same location as the MW 4.8 of the previous day. This earthquake struck at a depth of 14 kilometres; the moment tensor solution provided by NOA inferred a fault plane striking slightly west-south-west to east-north-east (strike = 261°), with a dip of 78°.
Moment Tensor Solution for the Mw 5.0 South Gulf of Argostolion Quake

This third mainshock was the largest earthquake to strike Kefalonia since the 3rd February MW 5.9 earthquake. Another marked increase in seismic activity was observed on this strike-slip fault at the mouth of the Gulf of Argostolion, with 32 aftershocks recorded by NOA over ML 2.0 in the 24 hours immediately following this mainshock. The largest aftershock in this 24 hour period occurred at 01:30 UTC on the 9th November 2014 with a local magnitude of 3.1, at a focal depth of 19.1 kilometres.

Since the MW 5.0 earthquake of the 8th November there have been no further mainshocks within this apparent swarm. In total since the 5th November MW 4.1 mainshock there have been 154 aftershocks recorded by NOA; of these 49 have been smaller than ML 2.0, 96 have been of ML 2.0-2.9, 7 have been of ML 3.0-3.9 and 2 larger earthquakes (as noted above). Most of these aftershocks have occurred at focal depths of 14-22 kilometres, with only 4 earthquakes having depths less than 14 kilometres – this number does not include the initial MW 4.1 earthquake, which is noted as having a revised focal depth of 16.6 kilometres when the moment tensor solution data is ignored.

Although the Gulf of Argostolion sequence appears to have eased up, two moderate earthquakes have subsequently struck the north of Kefalonia. At 06:31 UTC on the 12th November a moment magnitude 3.9 earthquake struck onshore of the Paliki Peninsula, about 12 kilometres north of Argostolion. This earthquake struck at a depth of 6 kilometres; the moment tensor solution provided by NOA inferred a fault plane striking slightly north-north-east to south-south west (strike = 7°), with a dip of 35°. Unlike the southern earthquakes, this earthquake was the result of thrust (compressional) faulting. Very few aftershock were observed to this earthquake.
Moment Tensor Solution for the Mw 3.9 Northern Paliki Peninsula Quake

At 09:37 UTC on the 13th November a moment magnitude 4.3 earthquake struck offshore, west of the Erisos Municipality in northern Kefalonia. This earthquake struck at a depth of 6 kilometres; the moment tensor solution provided by NOA inferred a fault plane striking north-north-east to south-south-west (strike = 15°), with a dip of 78°. This earthquake was the result of strike-slip faulting similar to the southern earthquakes.
Moment Tensor Solution for the Mw 4.3 Northern Kefalonia Quake

However this particular earthquake appears to correlate well with the mainshocks of January & February; the inferred fault plane matches those mainshocks, and the alignment infers that this aftershock occurred on a parallel to sub-parallel strike-slip fault. Subsequent reading of published work has shown that this earthquake, as well as those of January & February, occurred on the Kefalonia Transform Fault Zone (KTFZ). The form of the KTFZ is still debated, with it either being a homogenous single strike-slip fault running from the Ambracian Gulf in the north to a point south-west of Kefalonia in the south, or a series of smaller (~10 kilometres long) parallel and sub-parallel strike-slip faults. This year’s Kefalonia earthquakes may provide valuable evidence to resolve this question and bring a better understanding of the seismic hazard in the Central Ionian Islands.

This poses an intriguing question regarding the strike-slip fault which began to rupture with the 5th November MW 4.1 earthquake. This does not run parallel to the other faults identified (26th January Fault, 3rd February Fault & potential 13th November Fault) and therefore is arguably not a part of the KTFZ. Nevertheless it must be related in one form or another due to its proximity to the KTFZ and is probably the result of the same tectonic processes that have formed the KTFZ.

Over the next few weeks the author proposes that there may well be further MW 4.0+ earthquakes in and around Kefalonia. This is due to the increased seismic activity after an 8 month hiatus between the 5th March MW 4.8 earthquake and the 5th November MW 4.1 earthquake being so obviously broken. The lack of significant strain energy release in the period previous to November’s activity infers that a trigger was required for further moderate to large earthquakes to occur. As with any earthquake sequence there is the potential for a larger earthquake to occur; Kefalonia has borne witness to two magnitude 7 events since 1950, the first in 1953 and the last occurring in 1983 (Papadimitriou, E.E. (2002), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 92, No. 8, Table 1, pp. 3296). With a debatable recurrence interval of 30 years, the next magnitude 7 is apparently due.

References:
NOA Valsamata (VLS) Seismograph: http://bbnet.gein.noa.gr/plots/VLS.html
NOA Kalavrita (KLV) Seismograph: http://bbnet.gein.noa.gr/plots/KLV.html

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